| The US department of energy announced massive | | | | State level analysis 84 |
| investment the renewable industry including $60bn in | | | | Key players 85 |
| clean energy investments, which will include $11bn in a | | | | Economics 87 |
| smart grid system, $2bn in developing the next | | | | Drivers of solar power 88 |
| generation of energy storage batteries. An | | | | The Federal Investment Tax Credit 88 |
| announced move away from corn-based ethanol fuel | | | | ARRA impact on the solar industry 89 |
| and $1.8bn investment in the next generation of | | | | The California Solar Initiative 89 |
| biofuels will stimulate the vehicular fuel industry, | | | | Increasing corporate interest in solar power 90 |
| towards a cleaner, more efficient system. The new | | | | Increased venture capital funding in solar power 90 |
| administration has announced intention to develop | | | | State level RPS targets 91 |
| available offshore renewable energy source located | | | | Resistors of solar power 91 |
| on the continental shelf area. The area has vast | | | | Shortage of silicon 91 |
| potential and scientists estimate that 900GW of wind | | | | High cost 92 |
| power may be achieved. | | | | Solar power potential and outlook 92 |
| Although still primarily a conventional thermal based | | | | Solar power potential 92 |
| country, through incentivized support in renewable | | | | Outlook for solar power 93 |
| energy, a new energy market is beginning to evolve. | | | | Chapter 5 Hydropower 96 |
| Recent addition has been made to the energy mix | | | | Summary 96 |
| by way of renewable energy technologies which | | | | Overview 97 |
| include power from the wind - wind turbines, and | | | | Current scenario 97 |
| power from the sun - solar cells, and geothermal | | | | Installed capacity and generation 97 |
| – relying on the heat that can be found at | | | | Global comparison 100 |
| varying degrees of depth into the Earth's surface. In | | | | State level analysis 101 |
| the last decade newly installed renewable energy | | | | Key players 102 |
| technologies are starting to gain a notable share of | | | | Economics 103 |
| the market. This report documents the growth of | | | | Drivers of hydropower 104 |
| this new market, showing its current status and | | | | Licensing reforms 104 |
| projecting where it is likely to grow to in the | | | | Inclusion of incremental hydropower under PTC 104 |
| foreseeable future. This document gathers the | | | | The DOE Hydropower Program 105 |
| statistical data on the different types of energy | | | | Resistors of hydropower 106 |
| generation, combines and contrasts them against | | | | Licensing issues due to environmental concerns 106 |
| each other to show the clear leaders, drivers to | | | | Newly realized environmental concerns 107 |
| change and future growth. | | | | Capital intensive but lacking incentives 107 |
| Scope of this report | | | | Hydropower potential and outlook 108 |
| -Analysis of energy type volumes, capacity installed | | | | Hydropower potential 108 |
| and generation output across the US. | | | | Outlook for hydropower 109 |
| -Market projections to 2020, including an evaluation of | | | | Chapter 6 Geothermal power 112 |
| energy type and national growth potential. | | | | Summary 112 |
| -Overview of trends impacting on and shaping | | | | Overview 113 |
| innovation in the energy market. | | | | Current scenario 113 |
| -New renewable energy technology analysis including | | | | Installed capacity and generation 113 |
| innovation, capacity investment. | | | | Global comparison 115 |
| -Insight relating to the most innovative product | | | | State level analysis 115 |
| launches and potential areas of opportunity for | | | | Key players 117 |
| manufacturers. | | | | Economics 118 |
| -Examination of the key technology introductions and | | | | Drivers of geothermal power 119 |
| innovations | | | | Introduction of PTC for geothermal 119 |
| -Identification of the key trends shaping the market, | | | | Other financial merits for geothermal 120 |
| as well as an evaluation of emerging trends that will | | | | DOE's Geothermal Technologies Program 120 |
| drive innovation moving forward. | | | | Increased environmental concerns 121 |
| Reasons to purchase this report | | | | Resistors of geothermal power 121 |
| -Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of | | | | Short time horizon for PTC 121 |
| how US market trends and legislation are influencing | | | | Leasing issues 122 |
| the development of the renewable energy market. | | | | Cost constraints and transmission issues 122 |
| -Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a | | | | Limited research funding 123 |
| comprehensive review of the US market renewable | | | | Geothermal power potential and outlook 124 |
| energy market between 1990 and 2008. | | | | Geothermal power potential 124 |
| -Assess the emerging trends in renewable energy | | | | Outlook for geothermal power 129 |
| technology – wind, solar, geothermal, | | | | Chapter 7 Biomass 132 |
| hydroelectric, biomass, tidal, wave - capacity and | | | | Summary 132 |
| generation. | | | | Overview 133 |
| -Identify which key trends will offer the greatest | | | | Current scenario 133 |
| growth potential and learn which trends are likely to | | | | Installed capacity and generation 133 |
| remain niche over the next 10 years. | | | | Global comparison 135 |
| -Compare how manufacturers are positioning new | | | | Key players 135 |
| product developments to gain market share and | | | | Economics 136 |
| achieve the highest sales potential. | | | | Drivers of biomass 138 |
| -Quantify value and volume growth potential in major | | | | Attractive economics of co-firing 138 |
| regional markets and in energy generation technology | | | | Environmentally friendly power generation 138 |
| type. | | | | Employment generation 139 |
| -Identify winning product positioning developed from | | | | DOE biomass program 139 |
| an assessment of current and emerging trends | | | | PTC extension and ITC inclusion 140 |
| Key market issues addressed | | | | Resistors of biomass 140 |
| Environmental regulations: Imminent environmental | | | | Cost constraints 140 |
| targets set to control Carbon dioxide emissions in the | | | | Constraints in the supply of raw material 141 |
| US using a cap and trade mechanism are creating a | | | | Biomass potential and outlook 141 |
| path for lower carbon emitting power generation | | | | Biomass potential 141 |
| technologies. Recent capacity investment has | | | | Outlook for biomass 143 |
| focused on wind turbines, gas and solar photovoltaic | | | | Chapter 8 Ocean power 146 |
| installations. | | | | Summary 146 |
| Renewable Electricity market incentives: The US is | | | | Overview 147 |
| has in place state level Renewable energy Production | | | | Current scenario 147 |
| Standards and the Production Tax Credit which | | | | Global comparison 149 |
| promote the development of renewable energy | | | | Key players 150 |
| projects across the country, and are responsible for | | | | Economics 151 |
| robust incentivized growth. | | | | Drivers of ocean power 152 |
| Energy efficiency:- The current electrical | | | | Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 152 |
| infrastructure experiences substantial energy loss | | | | State and city government initiatives 152 |
| from generation to transmission to load delivery. A | | | | Private investments 153 |
| more efficient system is required, a network that | | | | Resistors of ocean power 153 |
| can take advantage of the intermittent supply nature | | | | Lack of federal support 153 |
| of wind and solar – and balance these with the | | | | Siting and leasing issues 154 |
| more constant and reliable conventional thermal | | | | Cost constraints 154 |
| generation, geothermal, hydroelectric and nuclear | | | | Ocean power potential and outlook 155 |
| power. Recent US policy has awarded investment | | | | Ocean power potential 155 |
| into an intelligent grid system. The US has also | | | | Outlook for ocean power 156 |
| announced energy efficiency measures to include | | | | Chapter 9 Future outlook 158 |
| appliances, vehicles and power plants. | | | | Summary 158 |
| Energy security:- Oil, coal and gas supply and pricing | | | | Outlook for the US electricity sector 159 |
| structures are volatile and uncontrollable, due to the | | | | Outlook for renewables 162 |
| majority imported from non-US countries. This | | | | The American Clean Energy and Security Act 165 |
| volatility is likely to increase as reserves of the | | | | EIA outlook 166 |
| natural resources decline. | | | | Alternative scenarios 169 |
| Centralized network to distributed:- the changeover | | | | Abbreviations 171 |
| to renewable technologies is a changeover to a | | | | Index 173 |
| distributed energy system, as renewable energy | | | | List of Figures |
| technologies take advantage of natural resources | | | | Figure 1.1: US net generation share by energy source |
| such as wind, solar or thermal energy which are more | | | | (Thousand MWh), 2008 23 |
| concentrated in specific geographical locations. | | | | Figure 1.2: US electrical total net summer capacity |
| Key findings from this report | | | | (GW), 2007 24 |
| In terms of new capacity installed during 2008, the | | | | Figure 1.3: US net energy generation shares by sector |
| US was the largest market with 8,346.0MW, followed | | | | (Thousand MWh), 2008 25 |
| by China (6,300.0MW), then India (1,800.0MW), then | | | | Figure 1.4: Crude oil spot prices ($ per barrel), |
| Germany (1,665.0MW), then Spain (1,609.0 MW), and | | | | 1986-2009 27 |
| Italy (1,010.0 MW). | | | | Figure 1.5: US net generation by energy source |
| Out of the 5,568MW of global capacity which was | | | | (Thousand KWh), 2008 28 |
| installed during 2008, Spain grid-connect PV market | | | | Figure 1.6: US electrical generation growth by type |
| accounted for 45.1%, Germany accounted for 26.9% | | | | (%), 2003-2007 29 |
| and US accounted for 6.1%. | | | | Figure 2.7: US primary energy consumption by source |
| Hydropower accounts for approximately 5.8% of | | | | and sector (Quadrillion Btu), 2007 46 |
| world electricity supply. In 2008, the total world's | | | | Figure 2.8: The Continental Shelf 49 |
| hydroelectricity consumption was 3,170.9TWH. The | | | | Figure 2.9: US renewable energy regional planning |
| US ranked fourth with a consumption of 250.6TWH in | | | | areas on the Outer Continental Shelf 50 |
| 2008.the US is the world leader in geothermal energy | | | | Figure 2.10: Total US energy (Quadrillion Btu), 2008 56 |
| and, at the end of 2008, had cumulative installed | | | | Figure 3.11: US cumulative installed wind capacity |
| capacity of 3,040.3MW. | | | | (MW), 2008 64 |
| In 2008, the total generation of electricity in the US | | | | Figure 3.12: Top 10 countries by cumulative installed |
| was 4,110bn KWH. Generation of electricity in the US | | | | wind capacity (MW), 2008 65 |
| is dominated by coal. During 2008, 48.5% of the total | | | | Figure 3.13: Top 10 countries by new installed capacity |
| US electric power was generated at coal-fired plants. | | | | (MW), 2008 66 |
| Natural gas-fired plants contributed 21.3% to the total | | | | Figure 3.14: Leading US states by cumulative wind |
| US electricity generation followed by nuclear plants | | | | capacity (MW), 2008 66 |
| with 19.6%. | | | | Figure 3.15: Average cost/KWh of wind-generated |
| Key questions answered by this report | | | | electricity (US cents), 1980-2020 70 |
| What are the drivers shaping and influencing new | | | | Figure 3.16: Impact of PTC on wind power capacity |
| capacity installed in the energy industry? | | | | additions (MW), 2009 74 |
| How will renewable energy technologies capacity | | | | Figure 3.17: Wind resource map for the US 76 |
| share perform to 2020? What are the opportunities? | | | | Figure 4.18: US cumulative installed solar PV capacity |
| What are the forecast market growth rates | | | | (MW), 2008 82 |
| 2008-2030? Which markets will see the highest value | | | | Figure 4.19: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed |
| growth and which the highest volume growth? | | | | solar capacity (MW), 2008 83 |
| Which states and regions offer the greatest | | | | Figure 4.20: Key markets by new installed solar |
| opportunity for growth? | | | | capacity (%), 2008 84 |
| Which renewable energy technology types will be the | | | | Figure 4.21: US solar PV market (MW), 2008 85 |
| winners and which the losers in terms of volume | | | | Figure 4.22: Solar PV manufacturers' market shares in |
| growth to 2030? | | | | US (%), 2008 86 |
| Which energy types are likely to find favor with | | | | Figure 4.23: Technology cost reduction goals for |
| manufacturers moving forward? | | | | residential PV systems ($/Wp), 2008 88 |
| Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity | | | | Figure 4.24: Solar resource map for the US 93 |
| and why? | | | | Figure 4.25: Forecasts for installed capacity and costs |
| | | | | 94 |
| | | | | Figure 5.26: US cumulative installed hydropower |
| Table of Contents : | | | | capacity (GW), 2007 98 |
| Table of Contents | | | | Figure 5.27: US power generation from hydroelectric |
| Green Energy in the US | | | | power (TWh), 2007 99 |
| Executive summary xii | | | | Figure 5.28: US total average electric power from |
| Market development xii | | | | hydroelectric plants (%) 99 |
| The Obama effect xiii | | | | Figure 5.29: Top 5 countries by hydroelectric power |
| Wind power xiv | | | | consumption (TWh), 2008 100 |
| Solar power xv | | | | Figure 5.30: Leading US states by cumulative capacity |
| Hydropower xvi | | | | (Thousand MWh), 2009 101 |
| Geothermal power xvii | | | | Figure 5.31: Ownership of hydroelectric plants in the |
| Biomass xviii | | | | US (MW), 2006 102 |
| Ocean power xix | | | | Figure 5.32: US DOE Hydropower Program 105 |
| Future outlook xx | | | | Figure 5.33: Feasible project US hydropower potential |
| Chapter 1 Market development 22 | | | | (MW) 109 |
| Summary 22 | | | | Figure 5.34: US generation, hydropower vs. other |
| Overview of US electricity infrastructure 23 | | | | renewables (TWh), 1990-2030 110 |
| Generation and installed capacity 23 | | | | Figure 6.35: US cumulative installed summer capacity |
| Sectoral distribution of generation 25 | | | | (MW), 2008 114 |
| Sales, revenue, and average retail price 25 | | | | Figure 6.36: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed |
| Overview of renewable energy in the US 26 | | | | capacity (MW), 2009 115 |
| Background 26 | | | | Figure 6.37: Leading US states by cumulative capacity |
| Installed capacity and growth of renewables 27 | | | | (MW), 2008 116 |
| Drivers of renewable energy 29 | | | | Figure 6.38: US geothermal existing plant locations 117 |
| American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 | | | | Figure 6.39: Geothermal resource map for the US 124 |
| 29 | | | | Figure 6.40: US Geothermal potential capacity by 2025 |
| The production tax credit (PTC) 30 | | | | (MW) 126 |
| State level Renewable energy Portfolio Standards | | | | Figure 6.41: Estimated earth temperature at 6.5 km |
| (RPS) 31 | | | | depth in the US 127 |
| Growing public support for action on climate change | | | | Figure 7.42: US cumulative installed capacity (MW) and |
| 32 | | | | Net generation (Thousand KWh), 2007 134 |
| Increasing investments 33 | | | | Figure 7.43: US biomass net electricity generation |
| Resistors of renewable energy 33 | | | | (Thousand KWh), 2007 135 |
| Failure to price CO2 emissions 33 | | | | Figure 7.44: Biomass gasification combined-cycle |
| Licensing and permitting issues 34 | | | | electricity costs (cents/ KWh), 2000-2020 137 |
| Environmental issues 34 | | | | Figure 7.45: US biomass capacity projections, |
| Discontinuity in PTC 35 | | | | 2000-2020 142 |
| Transmission issues 36 | | | | Figure 7.46: Biomass resources in the US 143 |
| Comparative economics 36 | | | | Figure 8.47: Ocean energy resource map for the US |
| Global comparison 38 | | | | 156 |
| Chapter 2 The Obama effect 42 | | | | Figure 9.48: US electricity sales by sector (bn KWh), |
| Summary 42 | | | | 1980-2030 159 |
| Overview 42 | | | | Figure 9.49: US net generation by energy source (%), |
| New energy policy 42 | | | | 2008-2030 161 |
| Energy security 44 | | | | Figure 9.50: US reference case scenario capacity |
| Crude oil and petroleum imports 45 | | | | outlook to 2030 (GW) 167 |
| Natural gas imports 45 | | | | Figure 9.51: US reference case scenario outlook to |
| Coal 46 | | | | 2030 (bn KWh) 169 |
| Biofuel's new direction away from corn-based ethanol | | | | List of Tables |
| 47 | | | | Table 1.1: US state Renewable energy Portfolio |
| The Outer Continental Shelf Project 49 | | | | Standards (RPS) 31 |
| The Outer Continental Shelf 49 | | | | Table 1.2: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($ |
| Resource potential 50 | | | | KW), 2003 and 2007 37 |
| The effect of the new policy 52 | | | | Table 1.3: Levelized cost of generation by type ($ |
| Energy efficiency 52 | | | | MWh), California 2007 38 |
| US market impact 53 | | | | Table 1.4: Global comparison of cumulative installed |
| Growth in green energy 55 | | | | renewable and alternative energy capacity, 2009 39 |
| Total energy 55 | | | | Table 2.5: Non renewable resources depletion, 2009 |
| Electricity 56 | | | | 44 |
| Obama's winners and losers 58 | | | | Table 2.6: Largest US state annual wind power |
| Chapter 3 Wind power 62 | | | | increases (MW), 2008 57 |
| Summary 62 | | | | Table 2.7: Largest US state cumulative wind power |
| Overview 63 | | | | (MW), 2008 58 |
| Current scenario 63 | | | | Table 3.8: Largest wind farms operating in the US |
| Installed capacity and generation 64 | | | | (MW), 2008 67 |
| Global comparison 65 | | | | Table 3.9: Turbine manufacturer share in the US by |
| State level analysis 66 | | | | capacity (MW), 2008 68 |
| Key players 68 | | | | Table 3.10: Top 20 US states for wind energy |
| The economics of wind power 69 | | | | potential in the US (billion KWh) 77 |
| Drivers of wind power 70 | | | | Table 5.11: Largest hydroelectricity dams in the US |
| Continuity in PTC 70 | | | | (MW), 2008 101 |
| Strong public and political support 71 | | | | Table 5.12: Costs parameters of hydro technologies |
| Increasing economic competitiveness of wind power | | | | 103 |
| 72 | | | | Table 5.13: Site development costs of hydro |
| Resistors of wind power 73 | | | | technologies 103 |
| Lack of continuity in the PTC 73 | | | | Table 6.14: Largest geothermal projects operating in |
| Environmental issues 74 | | | | the US 116 |
| Transmission constraints and costs 75 | | | | Table 6.15: Cost parameters of a geothermal power |
| Wind power potential and outlook 76 | | | | plant (Cost $/KW), 2008 118 |
| Wind power potential 76 | | | | Table 6.16: Top 10 states for geothermal energy |
| Outlook for wind power 77 | | | | potential in the US 128 |
| Chapter 4 Solar power 80 | | | | Table 6.17: US new geothermal project summary, |
| Summary 80 | | | | 2009 128 |
| Overview 81 | | | | Table 8.18: Largest US projects in progress for wave |
| Current scenario 82 | | | | and tidal energy (MW), 2009 148 |
| Installed capacity and generation 82 | | | | Table 8. |
| Global comparison 83 | | | | |